FANDOM


Menaces contra pace neti bihnt ayt eni ia saula lexis "armen conflicts" au "territorial aggressions" sontern ambhghehrdent divers menaces kam terrorisme, id proliferation om armes om massendestruction, pandemias kam AIDS, demographic crosct ed id rarefaction om basic ressurces. Sem exempels ghehde bihe daht herender.


ClimatchangeEdit

Hassa sei global warmen biht confirmet, id steighen ios marnivell, wedmank, id fall om agrent makhsouls ghehdient isnahe un baygh akster augen ios numer em "climatic refugeits" creend uno migrator waurg destabilisatil hol regions : in austral Africa, in Sahel, ambh id Mediomar, in id hindi subcontinent, in China, in Caribe ed id gulf os Mexico, in ia Andes ed in Amazonia. Fragil ed vulnerable Stats, qua sont ja nundiens destull dusmanagen, ghehdient etiwaurge ob global warmen, dind gehne schockwands kyalya lands. Historic-ye, to hieb est id fall pro societats qua depens agriculture, kam ta im Hittites ed im Mayas : ia hieb collaben pos long teursias quaswo hieb favorisen famines ed hieb vulnerabliht ia dia invasions.

Climatic ghi vulnerabilitat multipliet risks. Is UN Hog-commissar pro refugeits Antonio Guterres constatit also in 2009 od "id actual enderkweiten inter refugeits ed desplaceits est udzamant" ob "ressurcen rarefactiono multipliet conflicts". Appellit ad definihes nov protections pro i victims os climatchange chunke neid international texte protect i. "In id actual contexte, prect ab emotional debats de migration, reghyane id (1951 Geneve) Convention de refugeits riskiet fragilihes id". Dehbhient also bihe creet "flexibler" instruments ed mecanismes "yed qua impone obligations ibs Stats, kam un zanchey protectionsconvention".


WedorressurcesEdit

Conflicts po wedorressurces biwardhe, id XXIsto secule mehldend un tienxia wedcrise. Id kaup au ijar om arwrs in ia antslehnkend lands concentret-se in ia wedrichest regions. To ghehdiet, sekwent certaina NGOs, duce uni "wedorsuicide" quod kwehndient ia vulnerablest populations. "Id blou gold" risct maeti ses ayn un public wesu sontern bihe un privat wesu. Ja, 1,7 milliard leuden gwivt in lands qua paytte ob wedmank. Nib un international traiteit kwizeit id reuyden iom upergrance sreumens, un ghyorwort land poitt nudes vasya wedoriswors uns boengi : ia deighs qua Tyrkia nadehmt ghehdent ja turses id Purat pre id sreut do Suria au Irak; ia Chinese gatyes ep id Mekong riske dughes terrible repercussions ep Laos, Thayland, Vietnam ed Kampuchea; ia Uniet Stats preleive amalan id hol bog ios Rio Grande ed ios fluv Colorado pre sreunt do Mexico; Israel pumpet id bog ios Jordan pre id dehnt do Jordania. Id Nil est surce om tensions inter Misr ed nev alya lands ios African continent. Id 1929-1959 smyehrplayct inter Misr ed Sudan est kwit neprabh. Kamtod signen in 2010 ab Aythiopia, Uganda, Rwanda ed Tanzania, id wehst renquestiont : ulter id secession os Sud-Sudan, id construction uns gatye in Aythiopia rencauset id actual daysa. In Europe, inner tensions concerne Italia, Espania, Cypros ed Malta. Ia conflicts dayir wed bihnt schowi imminent sei multilaterala playcts de ids managemento ne bihnt concluden. Ia importantst risks concerne ia lands os Mediasia qua se levernt uni agrent uperreuyden ed ne tyeice ia necessar investions pro wed management. Also gnohnt Usbeckistan ed Kirghisistan grancenfaydhs po wedaccess causend yando mohrts unte drehdens inter weikers.

PandemiasEdit

Pandemias ghehde nices meis anghens quem ia mierst armet conflicts. Ex 1918 do 1920, id Espaniol Grippe hieb nict ex 20 do 40 millions em anghens, bayna qui 408000 in France, khaliban yun adults. Tod pandemia biht nuntos periesen ab tod os AIDS. Sekwent id UNAIDS/MSO report, id numer decessen tribuable ibs siuges bohndt ei HIV eet 2 millions in 2007, circa 33 millions adulten gwivient samt id HIV. Ia nov infections hieb sohnct ex 3 millions in 2001 do 2,7 millions in 2007, hatta in subsahrawi Africa quer id uperwaldh ios virus remien aksterst; punor, eent crehscend in plur Eusteuropay lands ed in Asia.

Avenflu in 2006 ed swinfluenza in 2009 hant bayihn nov pandemias ed hant demonstren id tienxia dimension os sanitatsecuritat. Bet, hois, id production unios novios vaccine naudht prista qua ghehdent dure tiel six munts, ed ciois, id paursken om preventionswassilas contra pandemias tehrpt nov investions : tuberculose concernt vasya lands samt un akster uperwaldh pro ta ios prever USSR, malaria neict ielg yar meis quem oino million em anghens. Oins instohlt, ia ilaja hant ops uno neteulim cost pro ia populations iom antslehnkend lands, quo eiskwt id werd ios makhen au ios import om generics po lyter pris.


EtiweikenEdit

Id tienxia population solliet crehsce med 4 milliards em anghens pre 2100, mutamikdarnd ex 7 do 11 milliards weikern. Eti, esdi Chinas population sehncsiet, ids irreversible economic ed politic staurerascen habsiet muhim consequences. Sekwent Henry Kissinger, "quando tienxias gravitatscentre movt ex un region do alyo, ed kun alyo lando stayg baygh staurasct, historia doct od un conflict est nevergible. Quo dehlgmos uces, est od cooperation est lasim".

Id augen ios tienxia population solliet dribhes problemes qua sessient crisct ab climatchange ob id deterioration os preswedor, id decline os khassiat production , id augen om storms ed saylabs tem quem ambiental migrations. Mund parts porgend meist risks sont ta habend un important au baygh dens population, gnohnd politic transitions ed un ghemo nivell os economic opos : austral Africa, id Sahel region, id Mediomar, Central Asia, Hind, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, certain parts os Caribe ed ios gulf os Mexico tem quem ia andin ed amazonic regions os Latin America.

Stats kam China au Hind sollient subihes idafi problemes baygh particular ob ir abnormal ratio om gnahsas inter pwarns ed piegs. Menxu id pact natural-ye ye 105 pwarnengnahsas po 100 piegengnahsas, eet ye 126 in Hind in 2010 (id khakst pon 1947) ed ye 118,06 ner babys po 100 dugters in China. In preter fall, id sabab est os economic buhsa ob id praxis os mahar; in dwoter, est due id siyassa'l Wahid purt ed ia swohds qua preferableihnt habe un pwarn (transmission ios nam, posdehrjen ios atavia cult, asimat iam dugters do ir swekerfamilia). Kweter id selection tyehct pre au pos gnahsa, id gwenenmank inkapt bihe khisst ye vast maschtab : 40,9 millions in China, 40 millions in Hind, 8,4 millions in subsahrawi Africa, 3,7 millions in Bangladesh, 3,2 millions in Mediorient, 1,3 millions in Misr, 900 000 in Afghanistan, 700 000 in Tyrkia, 500 000 in Taywan... Tik Sudkorea hat kamyaben pon 1995 inverte id trend os elimine dugterns. Is economia nobelpris Amartya Sen hieb ja alarmen in 1990 de tod situation : id risct gehne frustrations ed violences besonters ab 2030 quan ids effects bihsient plen-ye khissen. Ta sont presumpen ar hant existen bilhassa tempsa anancend un gwenenexcess pos weirs. Ghehdt lakin bihe citet id fall ios Far west samt data circumscriben ad bestohmta zone ed periode.

Ta quant problemes, specific ad certain Stats, habsient semschi repercussions exter ira grances.


Territorial conflictsEdit

Territorial conflicts inter Stats buir global-ye tayn ab ops meg-ye complexe innerstat conflicts bet ne hant alnos disprohpen. Ghehdient hatta eme un nov dimension ob ia colonisationsprogrammes ios space. Tod im Chinesen pancskwnd un bfumwurjien lunar base pre 2020 besweurght it alter Stats qua suspece Peking ob bifanghskwe Lunas ressurces. Sam-ye, id colonisation iom oceans ghehdiet ye baygh long pristo ses problematic.

Taiper, ia contestations dar concerne megawa territorial mutalbas. OIno iom meist besweurghends est dayir id bichoun ios grance inter Hind ed China ed inter Hind ed Pakistan. Causes weiren in id prev, ta grances sont dar objects militaren scarmuschen. Esdi id perspective om leurtorg playcts marct un seuten in 2013, Himalaya remant un tant-ye militar quem economic strategic pand ob sien wedreserves. Sam-ye, id contestation ios margrance inter Myanmar ed Bangladesh, quod existneut pon id creation tos Stat in 1971, est bustighen ab id aunstehgen gaslyogsen in id dawazone. Yando, conflicts eme un nov kweit os ambiental aurdhen ob Stats maghe localise ir polluantst opsa in ira grancezones : bayna ia existend mukadmas, smad cite tod opponend Colombia ed Ecuador de id airspraiyen om toxic herbicides upper ia coca plantations ed tod iom "papierpulp fabrics" opponend Uruguay ed Argentina. Bo buir submitten ei International Curt os Justice aun od tod ibs bringht notable resultats.

Id Curt biht semper budter in id paneg iom territorial conflicts, completend ia diplomatic proceddats ed ia arbitral panegs. Also, ta territorial conflicts bihnt minter frequent : id differendum opponend Latvia ed Russia buit solven med id traiteito ios 27 martios 2007, tod inter Romuneia ed Moldova med un traiteito ios 8 November 2010 pos 7 yars negociation, tod inter China ed Vietnam, qua hieb drohden bragv-ye mutu in 1979, hat fin-ye adducen uni playct in December 2008 delimitend ir landgrance. Punor, bo lands conteste ud mutu id Paracel archipelegv ed ia Spratley insules chunke id deilen ios Sud China Mar dar divide vasya Ripastats. Japan ed Russia cheident de ia Kuriles; Kampuchea ed Thayland claschneunt militar-ye pon 50 yars de id Preah Vihear temple... Grancen contestations dar oppone ia Latin American Stats, yed ta volgent semper opser kyid International Curt os Justice. In Europe, id question iom "frohsen conflicts" in id possovietsk rewos dar lant, Tyrkia ed Hellado diweide mutu de id Agayos ed de id division os Cypros menxu Espania ed id Uniet Roydem conteste ud mutu id souverainitat uper Gibraltar...

Eti, id region os Arctid est mutalben ab Canada, quod hat ghehldihn sien souverainitat yant 1880, ab Russia, Danmark, ia Uniet Stats, Norge ed Japan, quod ne est un ripastat. Contestations ed clames kardwnent-se idghi glehdjentahsa facileiht navigation ed accessiblereiht id naft, id gas ed ia charps io arctic enderghom. Idschi militarisation ios region, inkapt ab ia Uniet Stats in ia 1950tias, se acceleret sub id impulsion om Canada ed Russia. Yed, ia ripastats sont samghatneut pon 1996 eni id informell structure ios Arctic Concil.

Witerom ep id globe, Antarctid est kathalika object om divers mutalbas os souverainitat, bet id traiteit signet in 1959 hat frohst ia kay impones id brungos om exclusive-ye scientific activitats.

RaumateriasEdit

Id drahsa kya raumaterias vaht se accelere med id augen os tienxia population ed id akster crosct iom "BRIICS". Id ghehdt lakin bihe momentan-ye nilent ab uno major economic crise ed hatta bihe contrabalancen ab technologic innovations. Ta ghehdient modifie tienxia tulas. Kiezghiangas est baygh suadayter quem ia conventionala lyogsa localisen in Russia, in Iran ed in Gatar chunke sems sont trohft in ia Uniet Stats, in China betschi in Europe. Dayir id "oil peak", yani id instanto markend id start ios collapse os tienxia naftproduction bila kafi reserves, ids ubgumt in 2030 est baygh-ye controverten : ulter nov aunstehgens, id beciffer om naftreserves est meg opac menxu, pon 1985, ONEL memberstats indexeneunt ir naftproduction quotes ep id mikdar iom declaret reserves. Id securisation iom betyeicens de ia principal raumaterias biht schowi un prioritat. Id decision iom Chinese autoritats os reduce ye osyern 2010 unte meis quem 70% ir exports raren charps oiskeipt un illustration tos problem.

Id access kye naft, gas ed id securisation irs perwehghen hant esen id base iom conflicts in Irak, in Afghanistan ed in id region os Cavcase ed in certain regions Africas. Charpen control hat kathalika drohben ia weirs qua hant dohrt subsahrawi Africa. Sems hant un traditional neud (diamant, gold, cuper...), alya anance un nov interesse : coltan (necessaro pro mobilphones), tourmaline (joyelarie gemme), monazite, niobium.


Financial dusdaysaEdit

Id daysa ios financial manna gehnt kathalika conflicts idghi tyehct quasi semper ye id detriment iom local populations. Ressurcen reuyden ghehdt hatta ruine ir gwitsquader ed reduce ira parwarisch. Toge wakyet in id delta ios Niger kam diken ab id report ios UN Programme pro Ambient publien in augusto 2011. Solg mecanismes contribuent volvihes hol regions do weir au insecuritat. Notable ghi est id initiative pro id transparence iom extractive industries "Publiete quo yu payghte". Lancet in 2003 ab id Uniet Roydem sub id waurg diversen NGOs, id concernt dwogimtia landen esdi ids balance est destull mediocre.


Organisen crimeEdit

Organisen crime skeipt un talg menace quem certain Stats, besonters in Latin America, prehge ke crimes bohnden ad droghentrafique gwehme ender id competence ios International Schtrafghehrd. Kehnsent od id jilad contra narcotraficants au alya mafiosa netwehrgs tehrpt bihe assimilen uni weir. It appellent id armee kay sulkhbane in certain regions au quartiers. Bet id multiplication im civil victims ob abuses commiss ab askaris oiskeipt ep sien roig un druv probleme.

Organisen crime gahapt neid continent. Also, id magno menace pro Europe gwehmiet, sekwent id quarto reporto ios "National Intelligence Council" publiet endo 2008, ex transitional criminal organisations : dank ia gains ex ia energetic ed madenn sectors, ghehdient manipule oin au plur gouvernements os Eusteurope.


Cyberspace securitatEdit

Id securitat iom informationsystemes est un recent kaur esdi id alerte hieb esen dahn yant 1982. Un sovietsko gasoduct hieb tun explos ob id neud uns informatics code klohpt ex un Canadian compagnie mathmounend un kapanen application installet ab id CIA. Esdi ia sensiblest netwehrgs ios Stat ne sont yuct ad Internet, sontern exterdilt, id risk exist ed concernt iaschi strategic entreprises ios privat sector. Pon 2006, alyo danger se porgneut ob coordinen attaques, saygen os "denegen service" af hackers contra Stats kay organise id saturation iom netwehrgs edghi un immense desaurdhen. Magni men hackers involvient id Chinese popules armee, bet de ia Uniet Stats ed Israel habient creen id informatic vehrm Stuxnet, quod in 2009 hat paralysen un magno parto iom centrifugen nudt ab i Iranis kay antplehce id nuclearum arme. Endo 2010, id grupp Anonymous ghohd coordine mundwayt privat attaques contra ia financial xitus segus ia payghens ei site WikiLeaks. Ta quant attaques demonstre id naudh os kardwne ia wakhtsystemes inter plur lands. Also, biht prioritat pro Stats kardwne ir defense unitats de informatique.