Ia international negociations protie climat warmen[]
Un tienxia consensus oisbringht-se de id realitat os climatchange, de id rol quod ia menscenactivitats age in id ed de ids potential-ye catastrophic impact pro noster societats. Kay limite ids consequences, ia emissions tehrbient bihe reduct unte 20% in 2020 binisbat ir 1990 nivell, hassa tienxia emissions tehrpsient bihe dividen med 3 in 1950, quo imponsiet, kay linkwes lyt marge ibs antslehnkend lands, id division med 4, au meis, in ia industrielands. Sammel, lasim sont nabrunges un economic crosct, saul absorptil ia 3 milliards em idafi leuds exspectet pre 2050, ed porge un wehlbenhorizont altrims, sei discrosct biht vanschen.
Id conjugation om bo, productioncreiscen ed emissionen reduction, nos impont minces decs id energetic intensitat ios production. Med alya werds, cada product we consummet unitato dehlct mobilise decs minter woenschice gas quem nundiens. To kwehct exter schaecheing. Yed, solg revolution ja muss unte id prev : est id industrial revolution, quod hat multiplieto decs orbatsefficience. Imaginet un logos in id Parlament in 1750 predicend od unte oin secule id productivitat os orbat augiet tem quem un orbater ghehdiet parkwehre id orbat em cent. Is orator habiet est kalt un foll, au meis khiter. Hol kam eet inimaginable 250 yars prever concepe od un orbater ghehdt dadwe centens-ye meis orbat, est difficil nundiens imagine od un kilowatt-hor sia centens productiver quem id est nundiens. Est yed possible. Lakin, id industrial revolution hat oistrohct unte 130 yars quando nos etileikwnt dwo au tri decennia kay age.
Id Kyoto protocol hat skipen un prest etape, sammel modeste ed baygh ambitious, in id jidal protie climatwarmen. Concernit id 2008-2012 prist, unte quod id Europay Uniono mathalan hieb homologhen reduce sien woenschice gas yaremissions unte 8% binisbat 1990. Tod objective buit plaut-ye nact besonters ob id crise !
Est ver od tod traiteit eet neid alyo quem un prest etape : concernit tik 55 industrielands representend 55% om CO2 tienxia emissions, in 1990. Apart id Europay Union, ia magna pollutors ne hant nact ir objectives : ia Uniet Stats os America hant naiwo ratifiet id, Canada ed Russia hant sgwohmt ex id, ed China, bihto tienxia prest woenschice gas emissor, ne eet concernt.
Id Paris Playct widto dien 12 December 2015 previdt arke climat warmen baygh ender 2° binisbat ia pre-industrial nivells ed bilkull beziele se nastrehnge ad limite temperaturen augen do 1,5°. Id previdt odschi "carbonneutralitat" biht nact yant dwoter dwidel ios secule.
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L.Fabius, Perodhsedd ios Paris Climat Conference ka Franceois Minister iom Gospoti Res, sanct med sien glend hammer id weiden ios Playct.
Ia Woenschice Gas (WG) emissionen quotes[]
Ia homologhias os WG reduction eni id quader ios Kyoto protocol kihr ep id systeme os "emissionen exchange" styrt ab id UNO, yani id exchange om emissionen quotes, qua dahr id rect os emitte oin tonne CO2. Ielgo concernt lando diek uno numer om Unitats os Tribuen Quantitat (UTQ) correspondend sien objective os WG emission, homologhend restitue ye id end ios periode tant carbon active quem sien effective emissions.
Pro to, id poiss nudes sien inkapmujra om UTQs samt eventual-ye id kaup alien UTQs au credits ois ia mecanismes om Kyoto projects. Ta mecanismes sont om dwo aurdhens : ielgo land quod investit do alyo land kay reduce ter ia emissions diekit credits kalen "Certifien Emissions Reductions" = CERs, eni id quader ios "mecanisme os kiest antslehnken" pro investions in ia antslohnken lands, eni id mecanisme os joint enover pro investors in ia antslehnkend lands per definition non-submiss ad Kyoto. Tod quader est proroget pro ia lands signevs in Doha id dwoter homologhia prist pos Kyoto (2013-2020).
Id EU climatic siyassa kneigvt ep un specific carbonsmercat articulen con tod ios UNO, yed antplohcter. Id EU quoten wesneihsa systeme panct un plafon pro ia CO2 emissions om meis quem 11 000 europay industrial sites, bayghend ia emissorsta sectors. Tod plafon se materialiset ielg yar med id nehmen quoten ibs industrial sites eni id quader unios nationalios plan os allodhen quoten (NPAQ), validen ab id Europay Commission. Industrials poitte eni tod quader kaupe we pehrne quotes sekwent uno mercatpris.
Tod systeme hat nisbatan suawohrgen pre crise, pos ia in-kap adjustements (piora nohmta quotes) ed speit aschikar duswehrgens (WAT fraudo dayir quotenpehrn po gigantesk mikdars). Way, id hat bihnum inoperant ob id crise, quod hat fallihn ia prisa do alnos desincitative nivells : in-kap 2015, ia EUA certificats (European Unit Allowances) creet ab id europay emissionen wesneihsa systeme (EU ETS = European Emissions Trading Systeme) ghohld 7€, id pris iom CERs fallend prosch zero. Api, un carbonpris inter 15 ed 20 euros esiet tohrpt kay incite industrials ad investe do auncarbon productions : id presto deutsch energia productor (RWE) hat recorden in 2014 un gross operationsurplus om 7 milliards, ed un resultat prokwem 2 milliards, speit id oino milliard om euros pollutionujrat id hieb dohlgen payghe ob sien 140 million tonnen emiss trans ia quotes. Po 20€ id tonne, id rechwng habiet naken 3 milliards... Gohder, id pris solliet oscille inter 60 ed 80 dollars pro tonne in 2030 kay ia objectives om emissionen reduction bihnt nact (to est kalt id "carbon corridor", id progressive bet significant augen iom prisen kay modifie ia sulouks).
De facto, id arbitrage inter emissionen reduction / competitivitat est delicate. Mathalan, est semper previden od in id druna ios trit phase (2013-2020) ios EU ijadh, id systeme uperleit tadrijan ex id gratis tribution do un auction iom quotes, integral ab 2020. Id risk est od tun entreprises transfernt ir opos do alya lands ne submitten ibs quotes. To est kalt "carbonfug". Id probleme ios carbonfugios ghehdiet ses resolwt plautereihnd-ye id grupp om memberlands ios systeme os carbontijarat. Tod trend est wardhend, dec men US Stats nuper imponus un carbondwinegh (akhir esend California), Australia de mehldus joine in 2015 id EU mecanisme. Bet generalisationo neti est dienaurdhen pon id deuysen os Doha...
Id carbon taxe[]
Etileikwt od tod type os mecanisme ananct imperfections (non-stabilitat ios curs iom quotes qua sont objects om speculative movments mathalan) ed khact ghehlde pro vasya entreprises, ed a fortiori dar minter pro woiks, ploisko sei bihnt imaginen individual quotes quom management est destull complicat.
Id solution hat tun ka nam "carbon taxe". Tod taxe maght endue plur forms, kam ia fiulltaxes, ia imposten reductions pro vehicules qua emitte pau CO2, au subventions pro udnovim energias.
Est yaschi ver od tod tariffen releiven ghehdt penalise id competitivitat iom entreprisen pro export. Alter possibilitat consistiet impones taxes ye ia grances ep ia meg-ye carbonwent imports ex lands qua ne dostringe ia woenschice gas emissions reduction siyassas. Solg proschgumt ananct lakin plur difficultats, tod os sagve mides id carbonkhanliawng uns ware, tod os contravene ia Muntorganisation reuls, tod os expones-se ad meids om commercial apokwitis fin-ye.
Un economic organisation ad revisite[]
Quotes, taxes, xiseys, ta quant ijadhs inscribe id jidal protie warmen ka economic cost. Est yaghi id fall. Bet alya proschgumts sont necessar.
Prest-ye, ed to eet oino iom magnen brineghs ios 2006 Stern report, actualiset in 2014, tod costo dehlct bihe comparet tei iom effects os warmen. Qua sont ia becifferelements ?
Id cost os warmen - hoyd kwahim - ghehdt bihe midt concret-ye emend-ye ia sicurance buychaunkens vohrsen sekwos natural catastrophes. Also, pos id 2011 record, 2012 est id trito dorgvst yar ios historia os sicurance med 160 milliards om $ ! In ia Uniet Stats, ia sicurance buychaunkens sekwos ia storms hant augen mutawassit-ye unte 9% inter 1990 ed 2014. Prospectiver-ye, un dwaschaw om studyes quantifient ia supposen sketha os climat warmen. Mathalan, un 2013 studye sult ep quar models os warmen deict un radical modification ios geo-economia iom vins, samt uno nrichingen disparition iom vins os Bordeaux pos 35 yars sekwent quodkwe model ! Fin-ye, sekwent ia taiper prever vehrtens ios Stern report, id cost os warmen esiet bewirten inter 5 ed 20% ios 2050 BIP, menxu id cost ios action pagiet ye circa 1% tos sam BIP. Concret-ye, estghi baygh minter costeus kwehre quem kwehre neid !
Eti, economia est ops un question os dynamique. Ed id jidal protie warmen est un athime crosctwaurmen. Id challenge est bringhes nov products ei mierst numer creend-ye nov employs. Id est restruge un spehrdvantage quod ghehdiet sules crosct, pati id quantitative crosct os cras. Id est dahe un annem, ed un perspective, uni veutascend economia. Sei solg est id fall, id inkapcost ghehdt se wernes do dynamic gain. Ia studyes de employen creation, ed ia turnovers gohnen ab glend croscto schahident to esdi tehrbent bihe chohxen tadbir-ye.